Bay Area Health Officers' Indicators for Assessing Progress on Containing COVID-19
The following indicators will be tracked by each of the Health Officers in the Bay Area to assess our collective progress in ensuring we have the strategies and infrastructure in place to contain and treat COVID-19. The Indicators are important measures of progress as we assess whether, and to what extent, we can reopen.
These Indicators are based on our current understanding of the virus, our assessment of what goals are achievable in the coming weeks and months, and current tools to mitigate and contain the virus. We will be continuously assessing these Indicators as circumstances change; the science regarding COVID-19 (and its spread) continues to grow and evolve week by week.
Other factors will also guide the Health Officers’ decision making, including the development of other methods to contain COVID-19, the impact of the staged reopening of various sectors, the level of compliance with social distancing orders and guidance, collective compliance with isolation and quarantine directives for persons who are infected or exposed, and other scientific developments during this rapidly evolving pandemic. Further, decisions to modify existing restrictions will be made based on the totality of the circumstances; substantial progress on several important Indicators and other factors may allow additional activities to resume even if certain goals within the Indicators have not yet been achieved.
Indicator 1: The Total Number of Cases in the Community is Flat or Decreasing, and the Number of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 is Flat or Decreasing
The number of new cases identified per day is flat or decreasing in the coming weeks and months. We know that as we increase testing, our numbers may temporarily go up. Increased testing will provide a more accurate picture of how many cases exist in our community. We will be closely monitoring and analyzing this information week by week.
The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, across all hospitals, is flat or decreasing for 14 consecutive days.
Indicator 2: We Have Sufficient Hospital Capacity to Meet the Needs of our Residents
For at least a week (7-day rolling average), no more than 50% of patients in staffable nonsurge hospital beds are COVID-19 positive.
Indicator 3: Sufficient COVID-19 Viral Detection Tests Are Being Conducted Each Day
At least 200 COVID-19 viral detection (PCR) tests are being conducted per 100,000 residents per day.
This does not include antibody testing at this time, because the science regarding interpretation and validation of antibody testing is still in flux.
We are focused on tests performed, rather than testing capacity, to ensure we are achieving the level of testing necessary.
Our goal is to ensure everyone in the State’s priority groups in our County is being tested at appropriate intervals.
We reach at least 90% of all contacts identified:
Indicator 4: We Have Sufficient Contact Tracing and Isolation/Quarantine Capacity
To break chains of transmission, we must rapidly develop the capacity necessary to identify and isolate persons with COVID-19 and those who have been exposed to COVID-19. In communities throughout the Bay Area and around the country, we must do this at an unprecedented scale and speed, many times beyond what public health departments across the country are resourced to do currently. This will require a massive and rapid infusion of 3 resources, including disease tracers, information management tools, and the combination of housing, food, and income-replacement needed to allow infected and exposed community members to isolate themselves from others. This infrastructure must be designed to accomplish the following:
We reach at least 90% of cases and identify their contacts:
Indicator 5: We Have At Least A 30-Day Supply of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Available for All Healthcare Providers
All acute care hospitals, outpatient clinics, skilled nursing facilities, and medical first responders (Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and fire agencies) have a 30-day supply of PPE on hand. We will measure this as follows:
Every acute care hospital in the County has certified in writing to the Health Officer that it has access to a 30-day supply of PPE and can independently procure adequate PPE to meet its needs going forward.
No hospital, clinic, skilled nursing facility, other long-term care facility, or first responder agency is struggling to purchase PPE through standard channels, and none have needed to submit a request for assistance in obtaining PPE to the County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in the last 14 days.